U.S. House Races

Ad Spending in Federal and Gubernatorial Races in 2010 Eclipses $1 Billion; $250M in Last Two Weeks Alone

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Spending by outside groups up to $120 million since September 1

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) As of October 20, spending on advertising in U.S. Senate, House and gubernatorial races has eclipsed $1 billion, a historic figure by any measure.  Almost $620 million of that spending has been since September 1, and $250 million was in the past two weeks alone.  As a point of comparison, the Wesleyan Media Project estimated roughly $220M was spent on advertising between January 1 and September 15.  That means in the last two weeks alone, spending overtook the first nine and a half months of the year.  Year-to-date spending is almost 50 percent greater in House races (from almost $142M in 2008 to over $210M today) and has almost doubled in Senate races compared to 2008 (from $157.5M to $314M).

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Negativity Update: 2010 Features Similar Rates of Negativity, But Dems More Likely to Attack Personally

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Dems and Reps are Similar in Proportion of Negative Ads, but Dem Strategy Likely Driven by Desire to Draw Attention Away from the Policy Environment

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) As we reported last week, “claims that 2010 is the most negative election to date may be premature.  In an analysis of close to 900,000 airings from January 1 to October 5, 2010, the Wesleyan Media Project finds that the distribution of positive, negative and contrast ads is comparable to 2008 in proportion, if not in volume.”  In an update to that release, and with a focus on House and Senate races, we continue to find similar rates of negativity.  Furthermore, we find that Democrats and Republicans are airing similar proportions of negative (and positive) spots in federal races.  However, there is one crucial difference: Democrats are using personal attacks at much higher rates than Republicans and a much higher rate than Democrats in 2008.

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Economy Dominates; Wall Street, Health Care and Obama Prominent Themes in 2010 Federal Advertising

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Partisan Division: Dems Attack Wall Street and Wall Street Experience,
GOP (and especially IGs) Go After Health Care and Obama

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) In the battle for control of Congress, economic references are far and away the most prominent theme mentioned in both Democratic and Republican advertising.   In particular, jobs are receiving the lion’s share of attention with nearly half of all Republican ads (46 percent) mentioning employment and well over a third of all Democratic ads doing the same (38 percent), followed closely by mentions of taxes (44 percent of GOP, 36 percent of Dem ads).  Beyond that, however, ads by or on behalf of major party candidates diverge in their attention to specific references.

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A Brief Word on ‘Magic’ Words

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We took a quick look at magic word usage by interest groups in House and Senate races in 2008 and 2010 (1/1-10/5 in both cases).  The short story is that magic words are used far more often this year in House races (1 in every 3 IG ads, compared to 1 in 10 in 2008) … Read more

Negative Ads Prominent, Increasing in Number, but 2010 No More Negative than Previous Election Year

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Tone of Ads on the Airwaves in Top Races Keeps Pace with 2008;
Interest Groups Doing Heavy Lifting in Terms of Attacks

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) The battle for control of Congress and key gubernatorial positions are filling the airwaves with negativity.  Just under half of the ads aired so far this year were pure positive ads.  Still, claims that 2010 is the most negative election to date may be premature.  In an analysis of close to 900,000 airings from January 1 to October 5, 2010, the Wesleyan Media Project finds that the distribution of positive, negative and contrast ads is comparable to 2008 in proportion, if not in volume.  The Project distinguishes between ads that focus primarily on attacking a candidate, ads that promote a candidate, and ads that include a promotional and attack message (termed contrast ads).  Compared to 2008, attack ad percentages remain constant, with only slight changes in positive and contrast ad percentages.

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U.S. House and U.S. Senate advertising spending approaches $200M in last five weeks, $367M total since Jan 1

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Influx of Spending Indicates House is the True Battleground; IGs Spending Over $65 Million in Federal & Gov Races

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) An estimated $198M has been spent on advertising in U.S. Senate and U.S. House races in the five weeks between 9/1 and 10/7.  With September as the traditional start to the general election season, the 75 percent increase in spending (from $113M during the same period in 2008) includes an 84 percent spending increase in U.S. Senate races and a 65 percent increase in U.S. House ads.

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Over $219M spent on advertising in U.S. Senate and U.S. House races since Jan. 1

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Candidate and Interest Group Ad Volume, Spending Up Dramatically Over 2008; Party Spending Down; IGs Spending Over $100 Million in Federal & Gov Races

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) As of Sept. 15, an estimated $220 million has been spent on political advertising in races for Congress, greatly exceeding the roughly $135 million spent in U.S. House and Senate elections at this point in 2008.  In the first election cycle following the Supreme Court’s landmark decision in Citizens United v. FEC, the airwaves are being saturated with more House and Senate advertising, up 20 percent and 79 percent respectively in total airings.  The increase in spending is driven primarily by a surge in spending on U.S. Senate seats, which more than doubled compared to 2008.  House spending is similar to 2008 due to increased airings in cheaper markets.

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