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Obama’s ‘Convention Bounce’ May Actually be an Ad Bounce

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Pro-Obama Advertisers Had Over 2 to 1 Advantage in Last Two Weeks; Romney Heavily Reliant on Outside Groups; Negative Ads Up Sharply from 2008

(MIDDLETOWN, CT) – Although the Romney campaign has (until recently) dominated the money race, the Obama campaign dominated the broadcast airwaves in the two weeks during the presidential conventions.

As Table 1 shows, during the August 26 to September 8 period, Obama and his allies aired 40,000 ads on broadcast and national cable television, the vast majority of which were paid for by the Obama campaign.  By comparison, Romney and his allies aired roughly 18,000 ads on broadcast and national cable television during that same time period.

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Presidential Ads 70 Percent Negative in 2012, Up from 9 Percent in 2008

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Super PACs Sponsor Bulk of Presidential Ads; Obama, Crossroads GPS Battle in Same States

(MIDDLETOWN, CT) – The 2012 presidential race is shaping up to be an overwhelmingly negative one, much more negative than the 2008 contest to date. As Table 1 shows, 7 out of 10 of the ads aired in this year’s presidential contests have been negative—that is, they mentioned an opponent. This compares to fewer than 1 in 10 ads aired during the 2008 presidential race up to this point that were negative.

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Media Focus on Campaign Ad Strategy Amplifies Feeling of Negativity

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Positive advertising matters as much if not more than negativity

(Middletown, CT) – In the midst of perhaps the most negative presidential primary race in recent history, a new Wesleyan Media Project affiliated study (click here for an older local copy) published by Political Research Quarterly suggests that the tone of ads on the airwaves is not the only thing contributing to citizen perceptions of negativity.

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Microtargeting: Not Just for Online Ads

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The New York Times featured an article today on the increasing number of campaigns that are tailoring their advertising messages to different demographics over the internet.  This tactic – frequently referred to as microtargeting – is not confined to online placements of campaign ads.  In a newly published study appearing in Political Communication, two Wesleyan Media Project co-directors find evidence that, at least at the presidential level, campaigns are targeting specific audiences through television ads as well.

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Outside Group Involvement in GOP Contest Skyrockets Compared to 2008

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Romney Advertising Dominates in Florida; General Election Advertising Sets Furious Pace

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) The overall number of GOP presidential ads on the airwaves this election year is comparable with 2008, but who is paying for them so far has changed significantly.  The influence of SuperPACs in the race for the 2012 GOP nomination is clear, with a more than 1600 percent increase in interest-group sponsored ads aired as compared to 2008.

In the first presidential election cycle following the Supreme Court’s landmark decision in Citizens United v. FEC, interest group involvement in the presidential air war has skyrocketed from 3 percent of all ads aired in the 2008 Republican nomination race to nearly half (44 percent) of all airings. Table 1 shows the total number of GOP presidential ads (through Jan. 25) was just shy of 70,000 airings on broadcast television and national cable in both years. Candidate-sponsored ads, which made up 97 percent of the total in 2008, declined to 56 percent of the total this year.  An estimated $28.9M has been spent to date, a substantial drop from 2008.

 

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Project brings 2012 campaign spenders to light

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The Wesleyan Media Project to unveil first analysis of 2012, with new support from Knight Foundation and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund

(MIDDLETOWN, CT.) Jan. 26, 2012 – Complete with new data on the Florida primary, The Wesleyan Media Project Monday will release its first analysis of campaign ads for 2012.

The John S. and James L. Knight Foundation and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund are supporting the effort, a non-partisan initiative to enhance transparency about those attempting to influence American elections.

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2010 Campaign Ad Studies Published

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(Middletown, CT–)  Two comprehensive studies of the campaign ad trends from the 2010 election have been published by the researchers from The Wesleyan Media Project. “Advertising Trends in 2010” (click here for a local copy), by Erika Franklin Fowler of Wesleyan University and Travis Ridout of Washington State University, and “The Citizens United Election? Or … Read more

An Uptick in Negativity: Last Few Weeks Provide Confirmation – 2010 Campaign Most Negative in Recent History

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Republicans Using Pure Attack Ads More Often; Dem Attack Ads Still More Personal

(MIDDLETOWN, CT) – In just the last few weeks a large uptick in negative ads has pushed this year from one that was no more negative than 2008 to the most negative campaign in recent history by both sides. In an analysis of year-to-date (through Oct. 20) and traditional general election advertising (9/1-10/20) of House and Senate races, the Wesleyan Media Project is now finding a marked increase in negativity as the general election season has heated up and drawn close to Election Day.

***To read the entire release as a pdf, click here.
***Table formats: xls

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Ad Spending in Federal and Gubernatorial Races in 2010 Eclipses $1 Billion; $250M in Last Two Weeks Alone

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Spending by outside groups up to $120 million since September 1

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) As of October 20, spending on advertising in U.S. Senate, House and gubernatorial races has eclipsed $1 billion, a historic figure by any measure.  Almost $620 million of that spending has been since September 1, and $250 million was in the past two weeks alone.  As a point of comparison, the Wesleyan Media Project estimated roughly $220M was spent on advertising between January 1 and September 15.  That means in the last two weeks alone, spending overtook the first nine and a half months of the year.  Year-to-date spending is almost 50 percent greater in House races (from almost $142M in 2008 to over $210M today) and has almost doubled in Senate races compared to 2008 (from $157.5M to $314M).

***To view entire release as a pdf, click here.
***For tables, select your format (xls and xml have more information): pdf xls or zipped xml

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Negativity Update: 2010 Features Similar Rates of Negativity, But Dems More Likely to Attack Personally

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Dems and Reps are Similar in Proportion of Negative Ads, but Dem Strategy Likely Driven by Desire to Draw Attention Away from the Policy Environment

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) As we reported last week, “claims that 2010 is the most negative election to date may be premature.  In an analysis of close to 900,000 airings from January 1 to October 5, 2010, the Wesleyan Media Project finds that the distribution of positive, negative and contrast ads is comparable to 2008 in proportion, if not in volume.”  In an update to that release, and with a focus on House and Senate races, we continue to find similar rates of negativity.  Furthermore, we find that Democrats and Republicans are airing similar proportions of negative (and positive) spots in federal races.  However, there is one crucial difference: Democrats are using personal attacks at much higher rates than Republicans and a much higher rate than Democrats in 2008.

***To view entire release as a pdf, click here.
***To view tables only, select a format: pdf xls or zipped xml

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