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Heated Battle for U.S. Senate Draws Deluge of Outside Group Ads, Most Are Dark Money

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Groups Responsible for Majority of GOP Ads;
Huge Republican Ad Advantage in House Races Disappears in August

(MIDDLETOWN, CT) September 4, 2014 – With prognosticators giving even odds that Republicans will take over the U.S. Senate after this November’s elections, outside groups are taking notice. Almost 52 percent of ads aired in favor of Republican candidates have been sponsored by interest groups, and that figure is 40 percent on the Democratic side. Groups have spent an estimated $97 million on advertising in Senate races this election cycle, which is up from the estimated $78 million spent to this point in the 2012 election cycle. Table 1 provides total ad counts by sponsor in Senate races in the current and the 2012 election cycles, including all ads aired through August 30 in each cycle.

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2012 Shatters 2004 and 2008 Records for Total Ads Aired

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Over 900,000 Ads Aired in Presidential General Election Race;

Over 210,000 Ads since October 1;

President Continues to Hold Ad Advantage in Key Markets;

Independent Groups and Obama Campaign Most Likely to Use Pure Attack Ads

(MIDDLETOWN, CT) Oct. 24, 2012 – Over 915,000 presidential ads have been aired on broadcast and national cable television since June 1.  This is a 44.5 percent increase from the 637,000 ads aired through October 21 in 2008 and a 43.7 percent increase from the 634,000 ads aired through October 21 in 2004.  See Figure 1.

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Presidential Ads 70 Percent Negative in 2012, Up from 9 Percent in 2008

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Super PACs Sponsor Bulk of Presidential Ads; Obama, Crossroads GPS Battle in Same States

(MIDDLETOWN, CT) – The 2012 presidential race is shaping up to be an overwhelmingly negative one, much more negative than the 2008 contest to date. As Table 1 shows, 7 out of 10 of the ads aired in this year’s presidential contests have been negative—that is, they mentioned an opponent. This compares to fewer than 1 in 10 ads aired during the 2008 presidential race up to this point that were negative.

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Ad Spending in Federal and Gubernatorial Races in 2010 Eclipses $1 Billion; $250M in Last Two Weeks Alone

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Spending by outside groups up to $120 million since September 1

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) As of October 20, spending on advertising in U.S. Senate, House and gubernatorial races has eclipsed $1 billion, a historic figure by any measure.  Almost $620 million of that spending has been since September 1, and $250 million was in the past two weeks alone.  As a point of comparison, the Wesleyan Media Project estimated roughly $220M was spent on advertising between January 1 and September 15.  That means in the last two weeks alone, spending overtook the first nine and a half months of the year.  Year-to-date spending is almost 50 percent greater in House races (from almost $142M in 2008 to over $210M today) and has almost doubled in Senate races compared to 2008 (from $157.5M to $314M).

***To view entire release as a pdf, click here.
***For tables, select your format (xls and xml have more information): pdf xls or zipped xml

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Gubernatorial Advertising Up Dramatically This Year

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Overall Volume is Double 2006 Level; Outside Group Advertising Has Tripled;
California, Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio Inundated by Ads

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) The volume of advertising in the 37 states holding gubernatorial races this November is up dramatically over the volume of advertising aired up to this point in 2006.   A Wesleyan Media Project analysis of gubernatorial race airings between September 1 and October 7, 2010, finds that almost 300,000 ads have been aired across the country in gubernatorial races, double the volume aired in 2006.  Candidates accounted for 72 percent of those ads, while parties accounted for another 16.2 percent.  Independent groups financed almost 12 percent of the ads, an increase from the 7.4 percent that they financed in 2006.

***For a pdf of the full release, click here.
***Table formats: pdf, xls, or zipped xml (note: xls and xml have more information).
***For a NEW TABLE of Top IG spenders in GOV races, select your format: pdf, xls, zipped xml

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A Brief Word on ‘Magic’ Words

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We took a quick look at magic word usage by interest groups in House and Senate races in 2008 and 2010 (1/1-10/5 in both cases).  The short story is that magic words are used far more often this year in House races (1 in every 3 IG ads, compared to 1 in 10 in 2008) … Read more

Negative Ads Prominent, Increasing in Number, but 2010 No More Negative than Previous Election Year

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Tone of Ads on the Airwaves in Top Races Keeps Pace with 2008;
Interest Groups Doing Heavy Lifting in Terms of Attacks

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) The battle for control of Congress and key gubernatorial positions are filling the airwaves with negativity.  Just under half of the ads aired so far this year were pure positive ads.  Still, claims that 2010 is the most negative election to date may be premature.  In an analysis of close to 900,000 airings from January 1 to October 5, 2010, the Wesleyan Media Project finds that the distribution of positive, negative and contrast ads is comparable to 2008 in proportion, if not in volume.  The Project distinguishes between ads that focus primarily on attacking a candidate, ads that promote a candidate, and ads that include a promotional and attack message (termed contrast ads).  Compared to 2008, attack ad percentages remain constant, with only slight changes in positive and contrast ad percentages.

***To view entire press release as pdf, click here.
***Table formats: pdf or xls or zipped xml

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U.S. House and U.S. Senate advertising spending approaches $200M in last five weeks, $367M total since Jan 1

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Influx of Spending Indicates House is the True Battleground; IGs Spending Over $65 Million in Federal & Gov Races

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) An estimated $198M has been spent on advertising in U.S. Senate and U.S. House races in the five weeks between 9/1 and 10/7.  With September as the traditional start to the general election season, the 75 percent increase in spending (from $113M during the same period in 2008) includes an 84 percent spending increase in U.S. Senate races and a 65 percent increase in U.S. House ads.

***View entire release as pdf, by clicking here.
***To view tables, click for pdf or XML formats (with additional data — be sure to download not open from the webpage).

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Over $219M spent on advertising in U.S. Senate and U.S. House races since Jan. 1

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Candidate and Interest Group Ad Volume, Spending Up Dramatically Over 2008; Party Spending Down; IGs Spending Over $100 Million in Federal & Gov Races

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) As of Sept. 15, an estimated $220 million has been spent on political advertising in races for Congress, greatly exceeding the roughly $135 million spent in U.S. House and Senate elections at this point in 2008.  In the first election cycle following the Supreme Court’s landmark decision in Citizens United v. FEC, the airwaves are being saturated with more House and Senate advertising, up 20 percent and 79 percent respectively in total airings.  The increase in spending is driven primarily by a surge in spending on U.S. Senate seats, which more than doubled compared to 2008.  House spending is similar to 2008 due to increased airings in cheaper markets.

***View entire release as a pdf by clicking here.
***View all tables from release as pdf or XML (with additional data information).

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