2010 Elections

Obama Dominates Advertising in Key States

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President Holds Advantage in 14 of 15 Top Markets;

Only 7.8 Percent of Presidential Ads Positive;

FCC electronic disclosure leaves out more than 50% of federal ads

(MIDDLETOWN, CT) Oct. 3, 2012 – In the three-week period since the parties’ national conventions, Barack Obama and his party and interest group allies have continued to dominate the airwaves in the battleground presidential states. From September 9 to September 30, Obama held an ad advantage in 14 of the 15 most advertised media markets in the key states of Virginia, Ohio, and Florida (Table 1). In the top 15 markets, pro-Romney advertising outpaced pro-Obama advertising only in Las Vegas, Nevada.  (At the end of this report is a listing of advertising in all battleground media markets, Table 15.)

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2010 Campaign Ad Studies Published

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(Middletown, CT–)  Two comprehensive studies of the campaign ad trends from the 2010 election have been published by the researchers from The Wesleyan Media Project. “Advertising Trends in 2010” (click here for a local copy), by Erika Franklin Fowler of Wesleyan University and Travis Ridout of Washington State University, and “The Citizens United Election? Or … Read more

An Uptick in Negativity: Last Few Weeks Provide Confirmation – 2010 Campaign Most Negative in Recent History

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Republicans Using Pure Attack Ads More Often; Dem Attack Ads Still More Personal

(MIDDLETOWN, CT) – In just the last few weeks a large uptick in negative ads has pushed this year from one that was no more negative than 2008 to the most negative campaign in recent history by both sides. In an analysis of year-to-date (through Oct. 20) and traditional general election advertising (9/1-10/20) of House and Senate races, the Wesleyan Media Project is now finding a marked increase in negativity as the general election season has heated up and drawn close to Election Day.

***To read the entire release as a pdf, click here.
***Table formats: xls

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Ad Spending in Federal and Gubernatorial Races in 2010 Eclipses $1 Billion; $250M in Last Two Weeks Alone

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Spending by outside groups up to $120 million since September 1

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) As of October 20, spending on advertising in U.S. Senate, House and gubernatorial races has eclipsed $1 billion, a historic figure by any measure.  Almost $620 million of that spending has been since September 1, and $250 million was in the past two weeks alone.  As a point of comparison, the Wesleyan Media Project estimated roughly $220M was spent on advertising between January 1 and September 15.  That means in the last two weeks alone, spending overtook the first nine and a half months of the year.  Year-to-date spending is almost 50 percent greater in House races (from almost $142M in 2008 to over $210M today) and has almost doubled in Senate races compared to 2008 (from $157.5M to $314M).

***To view entire release as a pdf, click here.
***For tables, select your format (xls and xml have more information): pdf xls or zipped xml

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Negativity Update: 2010 Features Similar Rates of Negativity, But Dems More Likely to Attack Personally

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Dems and Reps are Similar in Proportion of Negative Ads, but Dem Strategy Likely Driven by Desire to Draw Attention Away from the Policy Environment

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) As we reported last week, “claims that 2010 is the most negative election to date may be premature.  In an analysis of close to 900,000 airings from January 1 to October 5, 2010, the Wesleyan Media Project finds that the distribution of positive, negative and contrast ads is comparable to 2008 in proportion, if not in volume.”  In an update to that release, and with a focus on House and Senate races, we continue to find similar rates of negativity.  Furthermore, we find that Democrats and Republicans are airing similar proportions of negative (and positive) spots in federal races.  However, there is one crucial difference: Democrats are using personal attacks at much higher rates than Republicans and a much higher rate than Democrats in 2008.

***To view entire release as a pdf, click here.
***To view tables only, select a format: pdf xls or zipped xml

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Economy Dominates; Wall Street, Health Care and Obama Prominent Themes in 2010 Federal Advertising

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Partisan Division: Dems Attack Wall Street and Wall Street Experience,
GOP (and especially IGs) Go After Health Care and Obama

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) In the battle for control of Congress, economic references are far and away the most prominent theme mentioned in both Democratic and Republican advertising.   In particular, jobs are receiving the lion’s share of attention with nearly half of all Republican ads (46 percent) mentioning employment and well over a third of all Democratic ads doing the same (38 percent), followed closely by mentions of taxes (44 percent of GOP, 36 percent of Dem ads).  Beyond that, however, ads by or on behalf of major party candidates diverge in their attention to specific references.

***To view entire release as pdf, click here.
***To view tables, select a format: pdf xls or zipped xml

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Gubernatorial Advertising Up Dramatically This Year

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Overall Volume is Double 2006 Level; Outside Group Advertising Has Tripled;
California, Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio Inundated by Ads

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) The volume of advertising in the 37 states holding gubernatorial races this November is up dramatically over the volume of advertising aired up to this point in 2006.   A Wesleyan Media Project analysis of gubernatorial race airings between September 1 and October 7, 2010, finds that almost 300,000 ads have been aired across the country in gubernatorial races, double the volume aired in 2006.  Candidates accounted for 72 percent of those ads, while parties accounted for another 16.2 percent.  Independent groups financed almost 12 percent of the ads, an increase from the 7.4 percent that they financed in 2006.

***For a pdf of the full release, click here.
***Table formats: pdf, xls, or zipped xml (note: xls and xml have more information).
***For a NEW TABLE of Top IG spenders in GOV races, select your format: pdf, xls, zipped xml

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A Brief Word on ‘Magic’ Words

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We took a quick look at magic word usage by interest groups in House and Senate races in 2008 and 2010 (1/1-10/5 in both cases).  The short story is that magic words are used far more often this year in House races (1 in every 3 IG ads, compared to 1 in 10 in 2008) … Read more

Negative Ads Prominent, Increasing in Number, but 2010 No More Negative than Previous Election Year

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Tone of Ads on the Airwaves in Top Races Keeps Pace with 2008;
Interest Groups Doing Heavy Lifting in Terms of Attacks

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) The battle for control of Congress and key gubernatorial positions are filling the airwaves with negativity.  Just under half of the ads aired so far this year were pure positive ads.  Still, claims that 2010 is the most negative election to date may be premature.  In an analysis of close to 900,000 airings from January 1 to October 5, 2010, the Wesleyan Media Project finds that the distribution of positive, negative and contrast ads is comparable to 2008 in proportion, if not in volume.  The Project distinguishes between ads that focus primarily on attacking a candidate, ads that promote a candidate, and ads that include a promotional and attack message (termed contrast ads).  Compared to 2008, attack ad percentages remain constant, with only slight changes in positive and contrast ad percentages.

***To view entire press release as pdf, click here.
***Table formats: pdf or xls or zipped xml

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U.S. House and U.S. Senate advertising spending approaches $200M in last five weeks, $367M total since Jan 1

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Influx of Spending Indicates House is the True Battleground; IGs Spending Over $65 Million in Federal & Gov Races

(MIDDLETOWN, CT –) An estimated $198M has been spent on advertising in U.S. Senate and U.S. House races in the five weeks between 9/1 and 10/7.  With September as the traditional start to the general election season, the 75 percent increase in spending (from $113M during the same period in 2008) includes an 84 percent spending increase in U.S. Senate races and a 65 percent increase in U.S. House ads.

***View entire release as pdf, by clicking here.
***To view tables, click for pdf or XML formats (with additional data — be sure to download not open from the webpage).

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